ORLANDO, Florida, April 2 (Reuters) – US job growth is slowing to a halt. If this was tolerable to policymakers or acceptable to investors before the Iran war, it should not be now. The labor market has been struggling for some time, but this has been overshadowed by the unemployment rate, which has come down, … Read more
Introduction With Labor Day coming up on Friday, it’s important to understand how the Fed is tracking the labor market. In particular, it is important that we do not rely on non-agricultural monthly publications – something we have warned against ever since. 2023. Whiplash reviewsthe changing “breakeven rate” (the number of jobs needed to keep … Read more
The bond market may be doing the Fed’s work for it. The central bank wants to keep rates steady in the face of the Iran conflict, which has sent oil prices up more than 50% and raised expectations of inflation in the next few months. Meanwhile, the markets are already overpriced. In the first month … Read more
The bond market may be doing the Fed’s work for it. The central bank wants to keep rates steady in the face of the Iran conflict, which has sent oil prices up more than 50% and raised expectations of inflation in the next few months. Meanwhile, the markets are already overpriced. In the first month … Read more
Consumers continue to feel the effects of inflation on their finances. In February, the Consumer Price Index, which tracks the cost of consumer goods and services, showed a rise of 2.4% over the past 12 months. And according to another world policy organization, the US war with Iran and its effects on the price of … Read more
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is down 7% year-to-date through March 30, 2026, while the VIX rose to 30.61 as energy shocks driven by WTI crude oil above $100 a barrel threaten to reverse inflation. Core PCE inflation reached 128.394 in January 2026, its highest figure in 12 months, while the yield of the … Read more