Good news for investors: The charity event may finally be on its way.
That’s the word on Wall Street as markets assess the damage caused by the Iran war, which has dragged stocks lower for much of the past month as investors worry about the impact of higher oil prices on the US economy.
The S & P 500 – which looked on track for another strong comeback – is down 6% in 2026. That sharp year-to-date decline includes a more than 1% rally on Tuesday, which came after President Trump reportedly told aides that he was willing to end the war in Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz had to remain closed.
The decline so far this year has been largely due to AI concerns rocking the tech sector, as well as broader risk activity as the US-Israel war with Iran escalates.
But forecasters think recent events have left the S&P 500 oversold — and they’re looking at a big recovery in stocks just around the corner.
Adam Kobeissi, a longtime analyst and founder of The Kobeissi Letter, wrote in a letter on Monday that the S&P 500 looks set to rebound. He pointed out that the index is currently trading at its lowest level in 232 days and that the daily Relative Strength Index, a measure of how much an asset is oversold or oversold, is about 29. When the ratio drops below 30, it is often interpreted as a sign that the asset is oversold.
“We believe that a relief rally is necessary at least because of oversold technicalities and the imminent intervention of the Trump Administration,” Kobeissi wrote, adding that he was setting a target of 6,500 for the S&P 500, which means a 2% jump from the current levels of the index.
Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, also said he was watching the conditions for the charity rally. He pointed out how the S&P 500 fell below its 200-day moving average, a key technical level that can indicate the index is nearing a bottom.
In 20 of the last 28 times the S&P 500 has broken below its 200-day moving average, the index has risen above that level within 10 trading days, Woods wrote in a note to clients.
“In all cases except for the 2022 bear market, things were short-lived and provided good entry opportunities for both long- and short-term sellers,” Woods wrote.
“But will this be the time to put money to work where we should find a more stable floor and get that snap-back meeting? That is very likely. Remember that the biggest meetings in the market also occur under the 200-day average,” he added later.
The S&P 500 looks like it could be a week or two away from bottoming out, according to Mark Newton, strategist at Fundstrat Research. He said he saw the S&P 500 finding support around 6,200, pointing to various technical indicators suggesting a slight downside from current levels.
“Momentum is close to being sold on the daily charts,” Newton wrote on Monday. “Sentiments are getting worse, and Management appears to be nearing the pain point that could deliver relief to Equities in April.”
Rosenberg Research, a research firm backed by economist David Rosenberg, conducted a potential rally in the spring and early summer. Despite the recent sell-off, ten stocks in the S&P 500 appear to have a “negative bias” in their recent run, Walter Murphy, the firm’s technical analysis consultant, wrote in a note on Friday.
“It is reasonable to expect that this solid bullish situation will continue until July. The important point of all this is that, after almost six months of market malaise, the conditions of the spring-summer meeting are continuing,” he said.
JPMorgan’s market intelligence group said it generally expected stocks to continue “marginalizing,” but suggested there was room for a move in the near future, depending on how conditions in Iran evolve.
“Stocks have moved lower; and from a technical perspective, we are close to support,” strategists wrote on Tuesday. “A drop in the form of an agreement for a US official to meet with Iran will trigger the meeting and the ceasefire will cause further pressure and risk,” they later added.