“Come and get ready for the day with me,” a gray-haired young woman says to her pictures as she makes her bed, arranges her pillows, and measures the clothes she’s choosing. The video is similar to other lifestyle content that influencers post on Instagram and TikTok — until she pulls out her phone and reads Kalshi’s app. “I use it to check the weather to help me choose an outfit for the day,” she says, modeling a black spandex romper for the camera. “Go ahead and check out the app link below.”
Lately, my Instagram feed has been bombarded with women expressing how much they enjoy betting on polls, pop charts, and. Dancing With The Stars. They are prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, which allow users to bet on almost anything. A woman says on TikTok on one of the company’s accounts: “Boys can make their own games and use words I’ve never heard of. Her comment reassures me: “Kalshi is for girls!!!!”
So far, not so. Prediction markets have a similar problem. Although these sites offer all kinds of bets — where will Taylor Swift get married? Who will win The survivor?—it’s pretty much just another place for men to bet on football and March Madness. In the past six months, 88 percent of business on Kalshi has been about sports, according to investment firm Paradigm. The second largest group, at about 6 percent, is crypto (which can be said to be Again bro-ey).
In an apparent effort to bridge the gap, Polymarket and Kalshi have been running social media campaigns that discredit the discourse of women empowerment and girl memes. “The girl figures if I make $10 to say real life, that coffee was free,” the girl wearing thick glasses says in an ad that Kalshi used on Facebook and Instagram. “If I’m already reading the news or pop culture though, maybe you can turn my hot meals into free iced coffees.” He adds, “It’s kind of addictive, but in a fun way.” (The video has since been removed due to lack of required publicity.) Some content, like this one, are advertisements from the companies themselves; some are paid influencers; and others may be unexplained transactions or done by good women it’s big I am happy to post a questionable number of links to Polymarket.
Prediction markets should be easier to sell for women than traditional sports betting. Although women are less likely to bet than men, the prediction markets give the appearance of more than the betting sites. Kalshi and Polymarket both claim to be financial markets, not casinos; users make trades on any event, which creates opportunities that are said to predict the outcome. (They’re called “prediction markets” for a reason.)
When prediction markets try to attract women, they especially tend to rely on the idea that this is all about investing, not gambling. On Kalshi’s dedicated Instagram for women, @KalshiGirls, one meme reads, “When someone says that the predicted markets are ‘just betting,'” over a photo of Cher going out. There is no knowledge to say, “Ugh, as if.” Meanwhile, men’s ads tend to emphasize the fun of gambling and big payouts: “Dude,” reads Kalshi’s ad before the 2024 presidential election, “I’m going to bet my Cybertruck on Trump, maybe I’ll make a decent house if he wins.”
Kalshi in particular is increasing its efforts with women. (Polymarket’s main site, where people gamble using cryptocurrency, is available in the United States only through digital activities.) The reason for appealing to women is simple, Elisabeth Diana, Kalshi’s head of communication, told me: “They are 50 percent of the population.” He noted that 26 percent of Kalshi’s account holders are women—up from 13 percent just 10 months ago. Diana says most of the increase is due to natural interest, but the company seems committed to attracting more women. Before ABC canceled Season 22 of the Bachelorette A few weeks ago, Kalshi was planning a viewing party.
Indeed, when I looked at all the posts Kalshi had made on Instagram and Facebook, I saw a fair number that were clearly aimed at women. In applications, influencers used to make small bets with a specific goal in mind – usually caffeinated drinks. Polymarket taps into the same dynamic on its X account for female shoppers, @PolyBaddies. (I don’t suggest you Google that phrase.) One post has a photo of a Starbucks cup with the caption, “Matcha and markets kinda day 😌.” (Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment.)
Most of these marketing efforts are ridiculous. I would bet-I’m sorry-that most women will not be forced to spend their time in the prediction markets to maybe win $5 for their morning matcha. But some ads don’t have “number of girls” and actual numbers. Priya Kamdar, Maya Shah and Anika Mirza—20 people Get a CheckThe tech-and-business podcast reached out to Kalshi directly to get a partnership deal because they were already using the site, the trio told me. Mirza has Kalshi’s game in the race to succeed Nancy Pelosi in Congress; Shah has set how long the government shutdown will last; Kamdar added money to the Rotten Tomatoes score that every film is It’s bad franchise would get (he was right about the first movie and wrong about the second).
As more and more women are betting on the prediction markets, these sites are getting closer to their stated goal of predicting the future. If they want to predict the next Fed interest rate, the winner of the Bacheloror whether or not it’s going to rain tomorrow in Poughkeepsie, a market made up of male sports fans just won’t cut it. But Kalshi and Polymarket also have other influences that show they are made for women. Sports are very popular in pre-fixed markets because these sites allow people to bet correctly even in places where illegal betting is illegal. This becomes a big problem for companies. Kalshi has faced lawsuits from several countries for allegedly operating as an unregistered sports betting site. Arizona recently became the first state to indict Kalshi on criminal charges, and Nevada has temporarily banned Kalshi and Polymarket from operating in the state. The companies, which maintain that they are financial markets and therefore are not subject to restrictions on betting on sports, are interested in making users bet on topics other than sports. Dustin Gouker, a gambling industry consultant who writes for the daily newspaper, told me: “It’s future-proofing.
Perhaps the biggest problem with these ads is that they make it easy to forget that you can lose money with the predicted markets. Shah, the podcast host, told me that if one is trading in topics that one has deep knowledge about, prediction markets can be an effective “financial tool”. But they are inherently dangerous. Once, I was shown an ad of a worried woman checking out Kalshi’s bed with her friends, with the words, “I was on the verge of not being able to pay the rent, but I got two years of rent with Kalshi’s estimates. Amazing! 🥰🥰” When I searched for it again, the ad had been taken down; The next time I saw it was a sign in a class action lawsuit against Kalshi that says, in part, that the site doesn’t adequately disclose risks to consumers. (Kalshi has denied the allegations.)
To hear the companies tell it, the prediction market is another way to be a #girlboss. “Listen up, pop girls! This platform is often considered to be for the money-grubbers, but I’ll show you why it is for us,” said one woman in a post that appears to have been sponsored by Polymarket. (This video contains no disclosures.) Kalshi and Polymarket become just another part of the day—planets that women can use to check the odds even if they’re not betting.
A year ago, I probably wouldn’t have told you what the prediction market was. In January, Polymarket’s prospects were revealed during the Golden Globes, and CNN experts quoted Kalshi’s marketing on air. In February, Los Angeles’s Sunset Boulevard—a famous street in my hometown, known for its clubs and neon signs—had a plaque displaying Kalshi’s variations. These platforms are now everywhere. If women really start using them in large numbers, prediction markets will become even more embedded in American life. Until then, companies will keep reminding them to do girls’ math.
#gambling #Girl #Math