CNBC Daily Open: Markets catch wind as Trump’s Iran deadline nears

Hi, this is Dylan Butts writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

Doubts continue ahead of US President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz at 8pm ET on Tuesday, or face attacks on its power plants and bridges.

Trump has delayed this deadline before. However, on Monday, he repeated his threats, showing a greater willingness to follow through.

Will Washington’s threats to strengthen its hand at the negotiating table? Are we expecting another Trump TACO? The outcome is uncertain. But here’s how the markets are reacting to the approaching deadline.

Trump said on Monday that the US had accepted Iran’s latest ceasefire proposal, but described it as “not enough,” ahead of Tuesday’s looming threat and threats against Iranian public facilities.

However, Trump echoed other sentiments on Monday, telling reporters that Tehran was acting as an “active, willing partner” in the talks.

“They would like to be able to make a deal. I can’t say more than that,” he said.

Meanwhile, Axios reported on Monday that the US, Iran and a group of regional mediators are negotiating the terms of a 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war.

Those improvements were enough to support investors’ cautious confidence on Wall Street. The S&P 500 rose for a fourth session on Monday, as investors weighed the possibility of a decline.

However, oil markets were weak. Prices rose after Trump doubled down on his threats against Iran, saying the US would destroy every bridge and power plant in Iran by midnight EDT (0400 GMT) Wednesday, a four-hour period.

US futures were little changed on Monday night as investors continued to dig for new developments.

Outside of geopolitics, the power of artificial intelligence remains an important market driver. Broadcom has increased its chip collaboration with Google and Anthropic, highlighting the growing demand for AI infrastructure.

In surprising news, OpenAI on Monday sent a letter to the lawyers of California and Delaware, urging them to investigate “unfair and anti-competitive behavior” by the founder of xAI Elon Musk and his partners, as a high-profile case between the two parties approaches.

– Dylan Butts

Offbeat Wall Street research firm says it has sent an inspector to the Strait of Hormuz. That’s what they learned

While the world’s oil traders are passing satellite images and official statements for information about the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, one research firm seems to have taken a different approach: It says it has sent an inspector directly to the conflict zone.

Citrini Research, which issued a market-shaking call on artificial intelligence earlier this year, said it had sent an analyst to Musandam on the Oman Peninsula, where the person went on a cruise to see first-hand the operations of the ships amid escalating tensions between Iran and the US

Instead, the analyst, whom the firm did not name due to operational reasons, found that ships were moving on the road, and traffic has been increasing in recent days to about 15 ships per day, according to a report by the firm posted on Substack. Although below normal, the flow suggests that the obstruction is partial and variable rather than complete.

“More than four or five tanks per day, it is completely dark in the AIS. They say, the volume is higher than the data shows, and it has been increasing in the last few days in the channel of Qeshm,” said the post of Citrini.

— Yun Li