Although the West has dominated scientific research around the world since the nineteenth century, recent decades have seen profound changes in where research is conducted, what topics it covers, and the extent to which its findings are spread across borders. In The Geography of Science (NBER Working Paper 34694), Abhishek Nagaraj and Randol Yao provide a comprehensive analysis of global scientific change between 1980 and 2022. Using data on 44 million publications from approximately 12,000 journals, they assess where science is produced, based on author citations and scientific references. summaries, and where science is used, depend on citation patterns.
Between 1980 and 2022, China’s share of global research publications in top journals rose from negligible to 32 percent, while America’s share fell from 60 to 24 percent.
The researchers combined the associations for more than 147 million groups of publications and identified the site views of about 7 million publications in 22 study areas. They divided the research into five areas: the United States, European Union countries that receive a lot of income, other high-income countries, China and other countries with middle and low incomes.
America’s share of world publications has fallen from 40 percent in 1980 to 15 percent in 2022, while China’s share has risen from close to zero to 32 percent. In 2022, China produced more than 35 percent of publications in top-level journals, more than the US or the EU. Some middle-income and low-income countries collectively account for 21 percent of global emissions, compared to high-income EU countries combined.
The change in the last four decades shows the expanded number of researchers in China and the increased productivity of researchers. Chinese researchers represent 18 percent of all researchers in the sample and 26 percent of researchers in top journals in 2022. In addition to cross-regional collaborations to produce similar methods, indicating that the methods are not primarily driven by international writing.
China is a leader in engineering and physical sciences, especially chemistry, producing more than 60 percent of advanced publications in materials engineering, communications engineering and physical chemistry. The US remains a force in biomedical and health sciences, including reproductive medicine and biochemistry. Middle- and low-income countries lead in agriculture, veterinary medicine and food science but remain underrepresented in top-level journals in many fields.
Among advanced publications, more than 40 percent focus on US topics, while only 13 percent cover topics about middle- and low-income countries. However, in low-income areas, research attention to these nations has increased, reaching 35 percent of area-focused publications by 2022, with China accounting for more than 20 percent.
The analysis of ideas reveals a divide in the dissemination of knowledge. A survey of China shows many of the data cited within its borders. Between 58 and 68 percent of Chinese publications come from other Chinese publications, even for successful work. This is in stark contrast to other regions, where cross-border citation rates are very high. Publications across regions have declined between 1980 and 2020 for all types of publications, reflecting the increasing globalization of the world, but Chinese literature has always shown a slow pace towards globalisation.
The researchers acknowledge support from the Clausen Center for International Business and Policy.
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