Are you worried about the Stock Market Crash? History says don’t sweat it. | The Motley Fool

Until now in 2026, the S&P 500 index (^ GSPC +2.91%) it’s down about 7%, but the ride has suffered more, as a series of events has hampered the market’s comeback. Whether it’s the war in Iran and the volatile oil prices that followed, persistent tariffs and inflationary pressures, a weakened consumer base in the K-shaped recovery, or the possibility of interest rates rising further to disrupt the housing market, there is no shortage of reasons to worry about a major stock market crash.

That said, three historical indicators suggest that investors shouldn’t panic — especially long-term investors who want to hold onto stocks for decades. Here are those three signs and why they combine to give me all the confidence I need to keep adding money to the market every week, even in the midst of the current market turmoil.

1. January Barometer

This historic landmark is the most unique of the three to me, but I find it fascinating (and confidence-boosting) nonetheless. LPL Financial found that since 1950, when the S&P 500 posted positive returns in January, it continued to post positive returns for the full year 89% of the time. In these years, the index has risen by an average of 16.7%. With the S&P 500 up 1.5% in January this year, history suggests the prospects are in our favor for 2026.

That said, there is no clear reason why this brand produces such strong results. It could be investors’ optimism at the start of the year, the broad market momentum, New Year’s mentality, or astrology (joking, I think). Whatever the reason, the 89% hit rate is too impressive to ignore, especially given the 75-year-old model. While I wouldn’t advise building an investment strategy around the January barometer, it’s a nice feather in the cap for long-term investors looking to add to stocks this year.

2. The US market’s volatility in the face of geopolitical events

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist with the Carson Group, compiled a list of many geopolitical and historical events (horrific events) that have occurred since 1940. He found that despite some of these events being the darkest days in recent history, the average return of the S & P 500 market 12 months later was 7.4%. Despite these challenges, the market was up a year later 63% of the time – roughly consistent with the idea that the broader US stock market rises two out of every three years.

It is possible that catastrophic events in 2026 could cause the year to fall to 37% of the time the market does not rise. But that’s no different than any other year, really, big political event or not, so I’m happy to keep adding more each week.

3. Temporary disasters, but long-term “protopia”.

Detrick’s data shows that short-term crises get all the attention, but the market rises steadily over the long term. This opinion agrees with one of the co-founders of Motley Fool David Gardner, “stocks go down faster than they go up, but they go up more than they go down.” A technical writer (and Draw a Breaker podcast guest) Kevin Kelly similarly explains this concept in relation to everyday life, explaining that bad news often steals the headlines, but that we are actually living in a “protopia,” or “a situation that is better today than yesterday, even though it may be only slightly better.”

Investing will never feel easy — especially in today’s environment. But if you stick to the principles for a long time, the reward will be worth the cost of admission. Detrick summed this up well in an interview with The Motley Fool, saying:

The reality is on average, you see a 10% correction once a year, you see a bear market about every three and a half years. You see a simple 5% drawdown four times a year and a 3% (pullback) seven times a year. Math class. I get it. Just know it’s going to be scary, it’s going to be uncomfortable, but long-term investing is one of the best ways to make money, one of the best ways to beat inflation, and usually the scariest thing is when you want to go up.

Stocks that can be bought when it’s scary

Despite the ongoing market turmoil, there are a few interesting stocks that have caught my eye recently:

• E-commerce and cloud-computing juggernaut Amazon it is trading at 15 times the performance, its lowest mark since 2010.
• Latin America’s e-commerce and fintech behemoth MercadoLibre it’s trading at 31 times the previous quarter, despite a 45% increase in sales in its last quarter.
• Good seller for you Sprouts Farmers Market it sells only 14 times, despite its long-term plan to triple the number of its stores.
• A leader in animal health care Zoetis it trades at just 17 times forward and gives investors a return of 1.8%, while continuing to dominate its growing niche.

These are just four of the many promising stocks that are trading at reasonable valuations right now. Inspired by the three historical indicators listed in this article, I look forward to buying these products (and many others) as the ongoing turmoil continues.