The war with Iran will remain the main driver of market activity next week, as investors hope to resolve the conflict. But it will affect the market in other ways as well: On Friday, we’ll get our first look at how the war-related spike in oil prices plays out in inflation data. While the end of the war may mean that the bottom is the stock market, we must refrain from gaining too much strength in the near future – although Thursday’s volatile session ended on an encouraging note with the S & P 500 slightly higher. The war isn’t over until it’s over, and things can change in a minute, not just a day. The Trump administration may say it expects the war to end within two to three weeks, but it will take both sides to end the war. Indeed, there was an increase in the war this weekend. As long as missiles and drones are flying and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is being held up, there is a chance that things will get out of control. 1. Oil prices: One of the big lessons from last week is that oil moves have told the real story. Of course, the short-term coverage likely had something to do with the size of Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s returns. But now, the oil market is the day that the stock market rotates. Just as it was fair for stocks to slide as oil rose in the early days of the war, it is equally fair for rates to rebound as oil prices rebound, as they did on Tuesday and Wednesday. Of course, Thursday’s session was an exception to this mixed relationship between oil and stocks. That does not change the main conclusion: If the war ends soon, it seems reasonable to think that oil prices will decrease further, and we will have increased confidence that the bottom of prices has been reached. Now, a warning: The messages from Washington and Tehran are mixed, and we have to consider a situation where the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed despite the declaration of war. President Donald Trump has suggested he can end the conflict without opening the vital shipping lane. With that thought in the ether, we saw a drop in oil on Tuesday and Wednesday, so perhaps the end of the bullseye is the most important for the energy markets. However, it is difficult to imagine that there is no high geopolitical price for oil if the war is “over” and the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is still slightly reduced – perhaps as Iran accumulates more money from the submarines. In that case, maybe $150 to $200 a barrel oil is off the table, but a return to the $60s anytime soon seems unlikely. We have talked for a long time about the impact of high oil prices on the world economy and corporate profits, so even if investors will accept the end of the war, it is difficult to call something clear and argue about the new conditions in the near future until we see more relief in the price of oil. As a result, expect the stock market to remain volatile next week as updates on the Iran conflict continue. A US warplane was shot down in Iran Friday. And, in a social media post on Sunday, Trump threatened to blow up Iranian factories and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened to all traffic by Tuesday. Our job as long-term investors, however, is to cut through the headline noise to find out which things will have long-term effects on our portfolio companies. Of course, the price of oil is another example. 2. Inflation Factors: Another factor related to oil that is very important is inflation, which brings us to macroeconomic developments in next week’s forum. They will give the Federal Reserve new data to work with as it plans the way forward for its overnight lending rate. They will also provide the bond market with new information that you can consider in terms of longer term products (such as the 10-year Treasury report), where rates are higher than things like mortgages and car loans. The long term is mainly driven by traders’ expectations for inflation, economic growth and monetary policy. At the short end of the spectrum is where we find data such as the 2-year Treasury, which is more sensitive to Fed policy. The Fed’s two mandates are price stability and increased activity. We got some good news in the labor market Friday when the March jobs report came in well ahead of expectations. The spotlight now moves on to price stability with two inflation reports. The big update comes on Friday, when we get the consumer price index (CPI) for March. This is the most important report of the week because it will show the beginning of the war with Iran. As of Thursday, economists expect to see an annual increase of 2.7% for headline and core items (food and energy), according to FactSet. In February, headline CPI increased 2.4% year-on-year and core CPI rose 2.5%. The morning before the CPI, the February spending and income report will be released. Normally, we can say that this is the most important release of the week because it contains the Fed’s chosen measure of inflation, known as the consumer spending index (PCE). However, as the government works to restore economic growth after last year’s shutdown, Thursday’s PCE index will cover March data. That means it will cover a month in which oil was still trading in the low to mid-$60s a barrel, making it worse compared to March’s CPI. However, it is not useless data. Think about it instead of providing a valuable basis for what things were looking like for the purchasing power of consumers before the war began. Economists expect to see a 3% increase in core PCE (prime food and energy), according to FactSet on Thursday. Apart from inflation updates, we will also get a check on the services sector with Monday’s release of the Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for March; our final reading of domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2025 on Thursday; and an update on production performance with the release of February factory orders on Friday. These aren’t market-moving developments by themselves, especially with war breaking vision, but think of them as pixels that help us understand the broader economic picture. 3. Rewards: Although the rewards calendar is light next week (no Team names in it), there are three notable reports that you should watch. The main one is Delta Air Lines, which reported Wednesday morning. Delta — and the entire airline industry — is uniquely exposed to oil prices because it is one of the largest operating costs of an airline, along with labor. In its most recent annual report, Delta revealed that “a one-cent increase in the price of jet fuel per gallon would result in approximately $40 million in additional annual fuel costs based on the annual consumption of approximately four billion gallons of jet fuel.” In other words, it is a make-or-break property for their financial results. Of course, Delta will provide insight into customers’ desire to travel despite these higher fuel costs (and higher ticket costs as a result). Another caveat to keep in mind: Delta tends to cater to high-end customers, who can handle the price hikes and streamline their travel. When CEO Ed Bastian appeared on CNBC two weeks ago, he said, “We’re living in the end of the ‘K’ that people talk about, the end of the first ‘K.’ That’s where more than 90% of our money is earned. That group of people want to go.” At the time, he indicated that Delta is still seeing strong targets, so we’ll be listening for any changes in management tone or outlook come Wednesday. Although Delta reports that its affluent customers are still buying premium tickets, keep in mind that this will factor into future inflation reports. That’s an important thing to keep in mind when interpreting inflation data. Of course, the Fed prefers to look at core inflation that excludes energy costs, but any energy-related costs that are passed on to consumers (in this case through higher ticket costs) will certainly be included in the calculation. That is not good for the economy. And if consumers start avoiding airline tickets because of the inflated prices, that’s not good for the economy either. There are two additional reports that will provide insight into the state of consumer spending. First up is denim brand Levi Strauss on Tuesday night, followed by brewer Constellation Brands on Wednesday night. Week before Monday, April 6 10:00 am ET: ISM Services PMI Tuesday, April 7 After-hours: Levi Strauss (LEVI) Wednesday, April 8 2:00 pm ET: Minutes of the March Federal Reserve Meeting Before the bell: Delta Air Lines (DAL), RPM international (RPM) After-hours 8 April 9 Constel: April 9 Constel ET: Fourth-Quarter GDP (final read) 8:30 am ET: First Jobless Reports 8:30 am ET: Personal Consumption and Income Report Pre-dawn: BlackBerry (BB), Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Friday, April 10 8:30 am ET: Consumer Price Index 10:10 am PMI Services ET 10:10 am PMI Services ET Instructions (See here for a complete list of Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust stocks.) Since you subscribed CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you’ll get a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after he sends a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charity portfolio. 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