Cocoa prices are falling – but not in time for Easter | CNN Business

This year’s Easter baskets will come with higher prices and slightly less chocolate, even though cocoa prices are lower.

Cocoa – a key ingredient in chocolate – has been falling in price from an all-time high in 2024, when cocoa beans were sold for $12,000 a tonne. Today, they are about $3,300 a ton.

But that drop hasn’t trickled down to what consumers are paying. Candy prices rose 11.6% last year, according to the February Consumer Price Index.

The reason: The Easter chocolate on shelves today is produced using highly imported cocoa, according to David Branch, branch manager at the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Center.

“2024 marked the culmination of three consecutive years of unfavorable weather conditions in West Africa,” the ministry told CNN.

West African countries are the largest producers of cocoa in the world. Ghana and the Ivory Coast alone produce 60% of the world’s cocoa. Extreme weather conditions such as high temperatures and heavy rains have resulted in low crop yields for three years in a row.

Consecutive years of declining production have led to one of the largest shortages in the supply of cocoa beans compared to demand. Markets responded with “rising prices,” the Ministry said.

Last year, chocolate giants Hershey, Nestle, and Lindt announced price increases due to cocoa shortages. Lindt has raised prices by 19%.

That’s bad news for the chocolate-driven holidays. Valentine’s Day chocolate prices rose in February, and at the time, the Ministry said that price increases could recover by Easter.

Americans will spend about $3.3 billion on Easter candy this year, according to the National Retail Federation. The National Confectioners Association says that about 90% of all Easter baskets include chocolate.

Fortunately for chocolate lovers, 2026 saw better conditions for cocoa growth compared to last year.

“What we have seen this crop year is good weather, improved cultural practices, more cocoa plantations coming online in South America and Asia,” the Ministry said.

All of these factors have increased the global supply of cocoa, and bean prices have fallen—although it may still take some time for the price drop to reach finished products in stores. The department doesn’t expect a break for customers until Halloween. However, it can be moderate.

“I don’t think you will return to where we were three years ago, but I hope we will be relieved,” said the Ministry.

Cocoa beans have been the biggest driver of price increases, but rising costs in other sectors such as packaging and energy have also contributed to the oversupply of chocolate.

Known as Manhattan’s oldest chocolatier, Li-Lac Chocolates has stopped the price hike – but it may not be able to for much longer.

“The (cocoa) prices or the packaging costs we could have accepted, but both at the same time were brutal,” Chris Taylor, owner of Li-Lac Chocolates, told CNN. “If it continues like this, I don’t see how we can avoid inflation.”

The tariffs raised the cost of food packaging by 2025. Taylor thought a Supreme Court ruling on higher tariffs would prevent the chocolate house from raising prices, but packaging costs are still too high for that.

And the Iran war could raise transportation costs due to rising oil prices. Consumers may switch to cheaper store-brand chocolate instead of big brands, Ministry said. Other types of chocolate like Peeps and jellybeans may also be more popular than in previous years.

But the Ministry is still confident in the public’s sweet tooth for chocolate.

“Consumers have not lost their appetite for chocolate,” said Ministry. Although the prices are high, many consumers cannot live without them.