Air fares, airport chaos are testing travelers’ willingness to fly this year

TOKYO/NEW YORK – Genevieve Price considers himself a major airline criminal.

The 35-year-old naturopathic doctor who lives in San Diego often buys basic economy tickets when he visits his family in New Jersey and spends. Alaska Airlines often fly to select a seat, which is usually not allowed for fixed fares.

“I like to travel a lot,” Price told CNBC at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York, where he was returning from Rome.

But Price says she has her limits, and plans to cut back on her spending on future flights, such as $900 to Rome, where her partner is from.

Consumers’ willingness to fly is being tested at this time of year as rising fuel prices lead to higher airfares. Cathay Pacific, SAS, Finnair and others are among the carriers that have already raised fares.

Travelers also have to contend with long-hour airport security lines in America as a result of the second government shutdown in half a year to hit the Transportation Security Administration, leaving many frustrated.

US crude oil was trading at $3.98 on Wednesday, up nearly 60% from before the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.

The conflict has caused problems for the airline industry, particularly in the Middle East, where the shutdown has forced pilots to cancel flights and take longer and more expensive routes.

Airlines will brief investors starting next month on the long-term effects, but they immediately began raising airfares or increasing fuel surcharges on tickets to help cover rising costs.

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told reporters at a company event in Los Angeles this week that airfares could rise 20% this year. Customers seem willing to keep reservations even as carriers pass on higher fuel costs to travelers, he added.

Other airlines have also said demand is picking up.

Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian told a JPMorgan industry conference earlier this month that demand has remained strong in recent weeks and that the airline is “well positioned” to reverse the fuel spike in its sales.

US airlines have seen steady demand for years. International travel has been a strong point, especially for luxury travel, which has brought in so many visitors that governments from Japan to Spain have taken steps to limit tourism, while citizens have protested.

But airlines have said they will reduce flights if demand falls.

“We will certainly be proactive in terms of the ability to ensure that supply and demand remain balanced,” American Airlines CEO Robert Isom said at the JPMorgan conference.

United, for its part, is preparing for gasoline prices to remain high into next year and is cutting 3 percent from its level during non-scheduled trips, such as weekday and redeye flights, Kirby told employees this month.

Some of the top deals are already available.

Air fares across the Atlantic from the US went to $1,059, with an advanced price of three weeks, up 26.5% from last week, according to a letter from Deutsche Bank on Monday.

Domestic routes, including transcontinental flights and flights to and from Hawaii, were also available, the report said.

Mary Jean Erschen-Cooke, a nurse from Cuba City, Wisconsin, who left Tokyo earlier this month on a 10-day trip through Japan with her husband, Paul, said she has many visits to American families this year.

“We haven’t booked our flights yet, but we should,” she said, adding that she and her husband might consider driving for one of them. He noted that petrol prices are also high, which will affect driving.

Along with high airfares, travelers face problems at the airport this time of year.

TSA officers have been working without regular pay since February 14 due to impasse in Congress over funding for the Department of Homeland Security. About 500 TSA officers have retired, according to DHS and the high calls have left the airport understaffed.

This has led to long security lines at major airports around the US, including Houston, New York and Atlanta. Waiting times exceeded three hours in some places – longer than some of the flights the airport offers – as queues stretched from terminals and outside the airport.

Elizabeth Leddy, a 38-year-old pianist who lives in New York, says she flies several times a year. Long security lines, which ran for about 90 minutes at LaGuardia Airport for TSA PreCheck flyers on Friday, could be a deterrent for him to do so in the future.

Leddy said if the safety line was three to four hours, “I feel like I could drive.”

DHS blamed Democrats for the shutdown, the longest shutdown in American history. As of Friday afternoon, the Senate had passed a possible deal to end the shutdown, thinking its outcome was unclear.

President Donald Trump separately said he would sign an executive order to pay more than 50,000 TSA officers. TSA officers will begin receiving salaries as soon as Monday, DHS said Friday.

The Trump administration this week sent Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers to several US airports, although DHS has not yet explained what their duties are. ICE officials, who also sit under the DHS umbrella, are being paid during the temporary shutdown.

ICE officers were spotted at New York’s LaGuardia Airport on Friday morning monitoring security calls.

“Even if this does reduce wait times a bit (we’re still reading negative wait times, so we’re far from a big improvement), ICE’s presence could make some people afraid to travel and annoy TSA workers when they’re not paid,” Bernstein said in a letter Thursday. “It looks like passenger activity may ease in the coming days and the TSA’s YoY growth assessment this week turns slightly negative.”